The Round of 16 of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs ended after Saturday night’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway, where Kyle Larson smashed the field. But Bristol ass-kicking or not, the points have been reset, and 12 drivers will continue to chase the NASCAR Cup Series championship in the Round of 12, which begins Sunday with the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway.
That being said, heading into the opening race of the Round of 12, people have interests, whether it be sports betting, trying to feel they know more than their friends, or simply wanting to know how their favorite driver stacks up going into the race.
This begs the question how have the 12 Playoff drivers fared at Kansas Speedway over the years?
While Kansas Speedway has played host to 37 NASCAR Cup Series races since the 2001 season, only the last five of them have come in the Next Gen car, which debuted in 2022. With how wildly different races have played out at 1.5-mile intermediates in the Next Gen era, I feel the only thing you can do heading into this weekend is wipe out anything that happened pre-2022.
Here is a look at how the 12 drivers (ranked by their Playoff seeding) have run at Kansas Speedway since the start of the 2022 season.
1. Kyle Larson (+39 Points to Cutline)
Over the five races at Kansas Speedway since 2022, there aren’t many drivers (you could only argue one, really) that have performed better at the 1.5-mile intermediate than Kyle Larson. The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion comes into this weekend with tons of confidence after leading 462 of the 500 laps in Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol, and he carries that confidence into a track, where he won earlier this season.
Overall, Larson has just one finish outside of the top five at Kansas Speedway in the Next Gen era, which was an eighth-place run in the fall of 2022. That was the one Kansas race out of the last five in which Larson failed to lead a lap. In every other race in that span, Larson has led at least 29 laps. Larson’s 276 laps led at Kansas since 2022 are the most of anyone in the Next Gen era.
Overall, the driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 sports an average finish of 3.4 at Kansas Speedway since 2022, which is the second-best in the series. He will undoubtedly be one of the favorites for this weekend’s race win.
2. Christopher Bell (+24)
Christopher Bell has been a qualifying machine at Kansas Speedway as he has amassed three pole positions at the 1.5-mile intermediate over his last five starts, and his performance in the actual races isn’t bad either.
Aside from a 36th-place finish in the Spring race in 2023, Bell has finished each race in the Next Gen era inside the top 10. Bell, the driver of the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, has also done something that even Larson hasn’t done at Kansas in that span — he’s led in every race.
Even with the DNF in 2023, Bell still has the sixth-best average finish at Kansas Speedway in the Next Gen era at 11.6. While he has yet to pick up a win at Kansas Speedway, he’s been in contention several times, and he is poised to break through at some point. It could be this time around.
3. Tyler Reddick (+20)
Heading into the Playoffs, no driver or team had found more consistency than Reddick and the No. 45 23XI Racing group. A string of 11 top-10 finishes over a 12-race stretch to close out the regular season led to Reddick picking up the NASCAR Cup Series regular season championship. And while he started the Round of 16 of the Playoffs off with a sixth-place run at Atlanta, Reddick has had an uncharacteristic subpar last two races, where he finished 27th at Watkins Glen and 20th at Bristol.
Kansas Speedway could be just the medicine the doctor ordered, though as the No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota has enjoyed three wins at Kansas Speedway, with three different drivers since 2022, Reddick being one of them when he won the Hollywood Casino 400 last season.
While Reddick has been hit-or-miss in his last five races at Kansas Speedway, evidenced by his 19.0 average finish, he has led in all five of the races at the 1.5-mile speedway, and since moving to 23XI Racing in 2023, he has an average finish of 10.0 at the facility.
If the No. 45 car can unload in the ballpark, Reddick should have a shot to contend.
4. William Byron (+14)
Nobody needs a good run on Sunday at Kansas Speedway more than William Byron, who since winning three races in the opening eight weeks of the season has come back down to Earth mightily. In the 12 races leading into this weekend, Byron has just four top-10 finishes, and he has finished 27th or worse four times in that stretch.
Byron wasn’t super stout at Kansas in the Spring as he finished 23rd, but a lot of the issues he sustained in that race weekend were due to slapping the wall during his qualifying run, which led to him starting the day from the 36th position.
The key for Byron getting a good finish will for sure be qualifying. In the three Next Gen races at Kansas where he has started from the top 10, Byron has a top-five, two top-10s, and a worst finish of 15th. In the two races where he started outside of the top 10 at Kansas, Byron has finishes of 16th and 23rd.
If he can start near the front, expect Byron to be able to maintain throughout the 400-mile event. If not, it could be another rocky day.
5. Ryan Blaney (+11)
The defending NASCAR Cup Series champion has had a solid defense of his 2023 title so far in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, but he heads to a track where he hasn’t had a whole lot of success in the Next Gen era. The driver of the No. 12 Team Penske Ford Mustang Dark Horse has one, yes, just one top-10 in his last five races at the 1.5-mile oval, a ninth-place effort in the Fall of 2022.
However, Blaney also hasn’t had any catastrophic days at Kansas Speedway as his worst finish at the track since 2022 was a 16th-place finish last Spring. Blaney, who has an average finish of 12.2 at Kansas in the Next Gen era, should be expected to be about that this time around as he has finished 12th in three of the last five races.
It won’t be sexy, but it’ll be effective if he can finish in 12th as it’ll set him up for a two-race stretch at two of his better tracks — Talladega and the Charlotte ROVAL.
6. Denny Hamlin (+7)
All hail the king, at least as far as Kansas Speedway in the Next Gen car is concerned. Hamlin has performed better than any driver at the 1.5-mile oval since 2022, as he has a spotless record of five top-five finishes in his five starts.
Hamlin is also one of the five drivers that have reached victory lane at Kansas since 2022, as he achieved the feat in the Spring of 2023. In addition to the win, Hamlin has a pair of runner-up finishes, a fourth, and a fifth-place run at Kansas in his last five races.
Prior to the Next Gen era, Hamlin racked up three wins at the track, so it appears he’s good at Kansas no matter the car combination.
However, the only thing not working in Hamlin’s favor is that there have not been any repeat winners at Kansas Speedway since 2022. That being said, you’d expect him to have as good of a chance as any at being the first to do so, but until a repeat winner happens, you wonder if the Next Gen car at Kansas Speedway is the ultimate parity producer. We’ll see.
7. Chase Elliott (+6)
It’s been a weird season for Chase Elliott. On one hand, he’s been really good at finding ways to take top-20 days and finishing top-15 on them, and top-15 days and turning them into top-10 days, etc. But he hasn’t been a real factor for the win very often this season.
But the sport’s most popular driver comes into this weekend at Kansas on the strength of a second-place finish at Bristol, his first top-five finish since Iowa Speedway in June. And Kansas is a track where he has been sneaky good the last few years. In fact, the driver of the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet has improved his finishing position over his last one in each race at Kansas Speedway in the Next Gen era.
He led 10 laps before coming home 29th in the Spring of 2022, he was 11th in the fall of 2022, Elliott snagged a solid seventh-place finish in the Spring of 2023, and was sixth in the Fall of 2023, and earlier this season he finished third at Kansas.
Could he continue the trend this weekend? It’s possible. As it stands, Elliott has the fifth-best average finish (11.2) in the Next Gen era at the 1.5-mile track, and if you remove the 29th-place finish from the equation, it pushes his average finish to 6.75, which would move him to third-best.
8. Joey Logano (+4)
While Kansas Speedway was super friendly to Joey Logano before the Next Gen car (he won three races there prior to 2022), it hasn’t been his best track since the 2022 season. Don’t get me wrong, aside from a 34th-place finish in the Spring, he hasn’t been bad at Kansas. He just hasn’t been amazing, either.
Logano’s first two Next Gen races at Kansas Speedway resulted in 17th-place finishes, and last year he was able to reel off decent finishes of sixth and fifth, before suffering a rough day earlier this year.
So, the question is, what will we get from Logano this time around? The top-five to top-10 contender? Or the guy who finishes outside the top-15?
9. Austin Cindric (-4)
While Austin Cindric has had an impressive run through the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs so far, things could hit a bit of a stumbling block this weekend at Kansas Speedway. The driver of the No. 2 Team Penske Ford Mustang Dark Horse has the 32nd-best average finish (24.4) of any driver that has competed in a NASCAR Cup Series event at Kansas Speedway since the 2022 season.
There’s no other way to slice it other than to say he’s been mediocre at the 1.5-mile oval. After finishing 11th and 12th in the two races at Kansas in 2022, he’s finished outside of the top 30 in each of his last three starts at Kansas.
While those are the facts, let’s also take into account that Cindric and his No. 2 team have been a completely different driver and team since picking up a surprise race win at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway in June.
Including that win, four of Cindric’s five top-10 finishes this season have come over his last 15 starts, and he’s also recorded eight top-15 finishes over that span. They have confidence on their side, for sure. Can confidence help flip the script for Cindric at Kansas?
10. Daniel Suarez (-6)
Man, Daniel Suarez, and the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing team were really, really bad at Bristol Motor Speedway as they finished 31st, and at no point in the race weekend looked to have a car even remotely capable of contending for a decent finish. However, with how bad they were at Bristol, equally good performances at Atlanta and Watkins Glen allowed him to advance to the Round of 12 anyway.
So, what will we see from Suarez this weekend? Great question. Back in May, Suarez started 27th and finished 27th in a very disappointing day at Kansas Speedway. So, based on that, you’d expect him to struggle again, but he did have three finishes of 16th-or-better at the track from the Fall of 2022 to the Fall of 2023, including a 10th-place finish in the Fall of 2022.
Suarez also led in two of those races as well for totals of eight laps and 12 laps. If they can unload the car with speed in practice, who knows, Suarez could be a contender. If not, he’ll for sure be a pretender. But with good tracks in Talladega and the Charlotte ROVAL coming up, if Suarez can get a decent run at Kansas on Sunday, he has an outside shot of advancing to the Round of 8.
11. Alex Bowman (-7)
Man, heading into the Playoffs, the noise surrounding Alex Bowman was that he was going to be replaced at Hendrick Motorsports. Bowman promptly silenced those rumors by accumulating the most points in the Round of 16 of any other driver and easily advanced to the Round of 12 of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
While he enters this round seven points below the cutline, Bowman is really good at Kansas Speedway. The driver of the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 was unable to compete in the Spring 2023 event at Kansas due to breaking his back in a dirt race crash, but he has not finished outside of the top-10 in his four Next Gen races at the 1.5-mile track.
Bowman’s best performance at Kansas since 2022 was a fourth-place finish, where he led a race-high 107 laps in the Fall of 2022. Bowman comes into this race with the third-best average finish (7.5) of anyone at the track in the Next Gen era. He is for sure a driver who could sneak his way into victory lane this weekend.
12. Chase Briscoe (-7)
Aside from a 13th-place finish for Briscoe at Kansas in the Fall of 2022, there haven’t been many bright spots at the track for the Stewart-Haas Racing driver. However, with the SHR team closing down at the end of the season, the driver and his No. 14 team have been determined to write their own final Chapter as they willed their way to a win in the Southern 500, the final regular season race of the year, to make the Playoffs.
In the opening race of the Round of 16, Briscoe was swept up in a crash not of his own doing with Kyle Larson, which resulted in a 38th-place finish, and pushed him to 20 points outside of the Playoffs cutline. It looked like his Cinderella Run was over, but it wasn’t.
Briscoe fought back to finish sixth the next weekend at Watkins Glen and coupled with trouble from other Playoff contenders, he was right back inside the cutline. An eighth-place finish last weekend at Bristol sealed the deal, and Briscoe is now battling as a Round of 12 contender.
Despite what his past results show at Kansas Speedway, this is a driver who is driving inspired, right now. He could be one that ramps up his performance this weekend compared to what we’ve seen from him in the past. If not, this could be the beginning of the end of the Stewart-Haas Racing Cinderella Story.
