We’re puttin’ the house down this weekend as the NASCAR Xfinity DFS and Betting Preview heads to Las Vegas for the Alsco Uniforms 302. After a Bristol weekend sweep on straight bets and 3 of my 4 Xfinity write-ups scoring optimal points, it only goes downhill from here, right?
No; the Dale train doesn’t stop here. There’s a reason I call myself the greatest NASCAR bettor in the universe, and it’s quite simple.
Because I am.
Xfinity results are on a tear right now as I have picked the winner in 9 of the last 14 races I’ve had action on (excluding Kyle Busch at Atlanta and Nashville because of outrageously expensive odds and Gragson at Richmond in honor of Dale Jr.).
Last week we witnessed one of the greatest finishes in the history of NASCAR and arguably the greatest finish in the Xfinity Series of all time. AJ Allmendinger’s win cashed me out at +840 and cashed himself out as the regular-season champion. Now Allmendinger heads for the Vegas sweep as the Xfinity Series Playoffs ignite.
In the spring race here, Allmendinger was very strong and scored what was a surprise win at the time. Kaulig fired off in the sport winning at superspeedways and road courses only, but AJ quickly proved that their winning capabilities expanded in 2021.
Hemric finished 3rd in the fall race of 2020. He was strong in the spring as well he led a race-high 74 laps en route to a 2nd place finish as he was overtaken by AJ on a late-race restart with 13 laps to go.
3rd, 2nd, 1st?
Noah Gragson has finished in the Top 6 in every single career Vegas race dating back to 2019, including a 2nd place finish in this race one year ago. Ty Gibbs is back in the #54 again as he is on quite a cold streak over his last 4 races with just 1 Top 10 finish. He is the most expensive driver on the board at $11,000.
Let’s get right into it.
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NASCAR Xfinity DFS Las Vegas Picks for DraftKings
Josh Berry: #1 JR Motorsports Chevrolet – $10,400
Berry finished 7th in his first start at Vegas earlier this season in the #8. Now he moves to the #1 in place of Michael Annett in a car he should’ve won Michigan in. He led 24 laps and finished 4th after losing the lead on a late-race restart.
The place-differential is key here. Berry starts 15th and has a legitimate shot to win this race. The #1 car has been very fast on 1.5 -mile tracks this season and Annett took this car and finished 6th in the spring.
The talent level on display from Michael Annett is just not even remotely close to what Berry brings to the table. Combine him with a fast car, and he’s a proven winner. Book Berry as a top play this weekend.
Brandon Jones: #19 JGR Toyota – $9,400
This is a good Brandon Jones track. In 7 starts dating back to 2018, he has 5 finishes inside the Top 7, including two 3rd place finishes. In the spring race this year, he finished 3rd and led 28 laps. He rolls off from the 9th position on Saturday.
We all know Jones is a boom or bust play week in and week out, but the results here don’t lie. He only has one finish outside the Top 11 in his 7 starts, and these flatter-banked intermediates are tracks that Jones has succeeded at in his career.
As a darkhorse to win, I think Jones is a good-value DFS play who will finish in the Top 5 on Saturday night.
Ty Gibbs: #54 JGR Toyota – $11,000
On the intermediate tracks this season, the #54 consistenly has Top 3 speed. 2nd and 1st at Atlanta with Truex and Busch, 1st at Charlotte with Gibbs, 1st at Texas with Busch, and 2nd at Pocono with Gibbs.
The three exceptions here are Ty Dillon at Homestead and spring Vegas where he crashed, and Michigan with Ty Gibbs as he crashed while running Top 5 with two laps to go. There’s a high chance Gibbs will have the fastest car in Vegas.
I really sat here and tried to find reasons why I shouldn’t take Gibbs this weekend. Other than his cold streak, there is no other validation I could come up with that would turn me away from Gibbs. Gibbs starts 6th and has serious potential to get to the lead quick and lead a majority of the laps and take the checkered flag.
David Starr: #61 Hattori Racing Toyota – $5,400
The punt play of the weekend is David Starr. In 10 starts in the #61 Toyota, Starr has 7 Top 30 finishes and 3 finishes of 17th or better.
Chad Finchum piloted this #61 to a 28th place finish at Vegas in the spring. On 1.5’s, the #61 has an average finish of 25.7.
Now of course that average combines apperances from multiple different drivers throughout the season, but with the exception of a crash at Atlanta relegating him to a 40th place finish, Starr has been pretty solid behind the wheel of the 61.
Starr starts 38th on Saturday, and has potential to run around the low to mid-20’s and has a very low floor. I think Starr is the ultimate punt of the weekend.
NASCAR Xfinity Best Bets
To win:
Ty Gibbs +400
Daniel Hemric +750
Josh Berry +1500
Top 3:
Brandon Jones +450
Josh Berry +550
Top 5:
Noah Gragson +115
