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Saturday, November 27, 2021
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NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship: Phoenix DFS and Betting for DraftKings

Noah Gragson Wins Martinsville
Noah Gragson was the winner in Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Martinsville. (Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)

NASCAR Xfinity Phoenix DFS and Betting Preview: The final race weekend of the year is upon us. Arguably the most exciting NASCAR National Series will go out with a bang on Saturday night with the NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship at Phoenix.

Martinsville ended with another thriller as Noah Gragson, who was in a must-win situation in order to advance to the Championship 4, took the checkered flag and punched his ticket to fight for the title this weekend. Daniel Hemric, once again boasting the fastest car, gave the lead up in the waning laps and finished 3rd.

Regardless, both drivers have the same exact opportunity in front of them this weekend. One has three wins and one has no wins. The playing field is even for the two as they will battle for the title with defending series champion Austin Cindric and regular-season champion AJ Allmendinger.

The lightning-fast #54 will be piloted by John Hunter Nemechek as he will run double-duty as he also will race for a title in the trucks on Friday night. His last start in that machine resulted in a dominant win at Texas.

One thing to keep in mind for the betting slate here this weekend: the JGR #54 is running for an owners championship. Don’t be surprised if they come through and win their astounding 12th race of the season on Saturday night.

I truly believe that one of those five drivers will win this race on Saturday. Justin Allgaier is very strong at Phoenix, but he has only won here once in his last eight starts.

Just like my trucks article, this will be more focused on some betting action that I like pre-qualifying. Be sure to come back after qualifying to check out my best bets and DFS plays of the weekend.

NASFinity has been nothing short of spectacular this season. We all know the car they run in this series should be the Cup car. But nonetheless, you’re here to get the best bets of the weekend.

So, for the final time…

Let’s get right into it.

NASCAR Xfinity Phoenix Betting Outlook

Noah Gragson to win (+450), Top 3 (+120), over AJ Allmendinger (-110)

Yes; Noah is a Garage Guy, but this is absolutely not a bias play. You make a biased play, you typically lose- that’s how betting works.

If you look at the strong point of the #9, it’s been the short tracks. His three wins this season came at Martinsville, Richmond, and Darlington. If you look at the weak point of the #16, it’s been the short tracks. All of AJ’s wins this season, except for Bristol, have been on 1.5 mile tracks or road courses.

If you watched the Bristol race, it was obvious that AJ had a 4th-7th place racecar. He benefitted through surviving the pandemonium that ensued late in that race, got an incredible restart, and stole the win away. He led one lap; it was the last one.

I think AJ will not win this race, nor will he be the champion. Gragson finished 2nd in this race last year, and I think he will run at the front the entire race and compete for the win.

For Gragson, the momentum and performance at similar tracks are there. I love Noah as the “underdog” play for the title, and I think the value for Top 3 and this particular matchup is excellent.

John Hunter Nemechek to win (+380), Top 3 (+110)

JHN will have no mercy on the field. His car is gonna be a rocket ship again. This team has a lot to fight for with the owner’s championship on the line.

Ty Gibbs took this car in the spring and finished 2nd. This car has won 11 races in 2021.

You’d be insane to not put JHN in your picks to win this race. The top 3 line at plus odds is intriguing as well. Watch these odds shift to the more expensive side if his practice and qualifying times top the charts. I’d take him now.

Riley Herbst over Brett Moffitt (-125)

Is Riley Herbst awful? Maybe. There aren’t many situations where I bet on him.

But Phoenix has been good to him in his short career. He has three Top 10’s in his last three starts at Phoenix including a Top 5 earlier this season. Moffitt only has one Top 10 in his last three Phoenix attempts, and that was earlier this season when he heavily benefitted on a late-race restart that lifted him into his finishing position. Herbst did too, but he outran him the entire race.

I’m gonna trust the equipment here and Herbst’s confidence level here after accumulating three straight Top 10’s. Is this a risky matchup? Sure. But I think at the end of the day on Saturday, it will cash. I’m riding it.

 

NASCAR Xfinity Phoenix DFS Picks

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,800)

Harrison Burton ($9,700)

Sage Karam ($7,200)

Alex Labbe ($6,700)

Austin Cindric ($11,000)

NASCAR Xfinity Phoenix Best Bets

To Win:

John Hunter Nemechek +380

Austin Cindric +350

Noah Gragson +450

H2H:

Riley Herbst over Brett Moffitt (-125)

Noah Gragson over AJ Allmendinger (-110)

Brandon Jones over Justin Haley (-120)

 

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