The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs have reached the Round of 12, and so far, non-Playoff drivers are sitting at a 33% win rate in the 2024 Playoffs. This weekend, the series heads to Kansas Speedway, which has played host to some of the best races in the Next Gen era.
There are also some intriguing drivers, who failed to make the Playoffs or were eliminated from championship contention in the Round of 16, but have a really solid history at the 1.5-mile track, which makes them very interesting choices if you’re looking for an upset race winner for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway.
Bubba Wallace
+1800 odds per DraftKings Sportsbook
The driver of the No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota Camry XSE feels like a no-brainer to be on this list. 23XI Racing has won the Hollywood Casino 400 in each of the last two seasons with two different drivers (Wallace and Tyler Reddick), and when you include the Spring race at Kansas Speedway, 23XI Racing has visited victory lane with three different drivers (Kurt Busch won the Spring 2022 race) over the last five races at the 1.5-mile track.
Wallace, who is looking for his first win of the season, is coming off his best finish of the season, which was a third-place run at Bristol Motor Speedway. He has momentum and confidence. Also, he is no longer worrying about his 2025 contract, and the planets seem to be aligning for a breakthrough.
Even with a 32nd-place finish at Kansas last fall after suffering a tire failure, Wallace has an average finish of 12.8 at Kansas Speedway in the Next Gen era.
Chris Buescher
+1800 odds per DraftKings Sportsbook
Chris Buescher still laments the Spring race at Kansas Speedway as he came up roughly an inch shy of taking the win, and securing his place in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs in a photo finish against Kyle Larson.
After seeing Larson lead 462 laps on his path to victory at Bristol, I can assure you Buescher will have his last race at Kansas on his mind heading into this weekend. Buescher has already played Playoff spoiler once this post-season, as he took the win at Watkins Glen. Even though his history doesn’t suggest he’s a strong option at Kansas (17.6 average finish in his last five starts), expect him to try his damndest to avenge his loss in May.
Ross Chastain
+2800 odds per DraftKings Sportsbook
While it’s been a frustrating season for Chastain, who saw his consecutive years in the Playoffs streak snap at two, he has been in the mix at Kansas Speedway virtually every time the NASCAR Cup Series has visited the 1.5-mile speedway in the Next Gen era.
Chastain has the fourth-best average finish (10.2) at Kansas over the last five races, and even in his worst finish of his last five starts, which was a 19th-place run earlier this season, Chastain led 43 laps prior to fading in the running order.
Don’t sleep on Chastain this weekend.
Kyle Busch
+1400 odds per DraftKings Sportsbook
Over his last five races at Kansas Speedway, Richard Childress Racing’s Kyle Busch has been very hit or miss. He had back-to-back finishes of 26th or worse between the Fall of 2022 and Spring of 2023, but has finished inside the top-10 in his other three races at Kansas in that span.
Busch finished seventh in this race last Fall and was eighth in the Spring. His Richard Childress Racing team has found something as he recorded four consecutive top-10 finishes prior to back-to-back 25th-or-worse runs at Watkins Glen and Bristol.
As long as Busch can avoid trouble on the track, expect him to have a car capable of a decent run on Sunday at Kansas Speedway, and who knows, maybe he’ll be able to extend his consecutive years with a win in the NASCAR Cup Series to 20.
Martin Truex Jr.
+1200 odds per DraftKings Sportsbook
Okay, on one hand, this one feels like I’m cheating because Truex did make the Playoffs, and is only a week removed from being booted from the Playoff field. On the other hand, this pick seems totally outlandish as Truex hasn’t scored a top-five finish over his last 17 races.
However, his last top-five, which was a fourth-place run, came at Kansas Speedway in the Spring. With the pressure of trying to finish his full-time NASCAR Cup Series driving career with a championship vanquished, perhaps Truex can grab his first win of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season.
In his five races at Kansas in the Next Gen era, Truex has two top-five finishes and four top-10s. Aside from a crash at Kansas last fall, it’s been a nearly spotless record for the New Jersey native at Kansas since 2022. Even with the DNF on his record, Truex has the seventh-best average finish at Kansas since the Next Gen car was adopted.
