Tuesday, November 21, 2023

Andy’s Frozen Custard 335: NASCAR Xfinity DFS and Betting for DraftKings

FORT WORTH, TEXAS – JUNE 12: Kyle Busch, driver of the #54 Twix Toyota, Daniel Hemric, driver of the #18 Poppy Bank Toyota, and Austin Cindric, driver of the #22 Odyssey Battery Ford, race during the NASCAR Xfinity Series Alsco Uniforms 250 at Texas Motor Speedway on June 12, 2021 in Fort Worth, Texas. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

NASCAR Xfinity DFS Texas edition: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to the greatest NASCAR betting preview in the universe as we head to Texas Motor Speedway for the Andy’s Frozen Custard 335. The season is winding down as the path to the Championship in Phoenix is being carved.

Kyle Busch won the last time out at Texas in a dogfight with Justin Allgaier. This race was memorable a year ago as Noah Gragson was passed for the win on the final turn of the race by Harrison Burton, who came from 3rd to 1st in three laps.

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AJ  Allmendinger continues to carry the momentum in the playoffs as he won the last time out at the Charlotte Roval. Other than he and Cindric, it’s a free-for-all at the final cutoff spot to advance to the Championship Four.

Noah Gragson holds the final spot by one point and Justin Allgaier sits only four points ahead of him. Outside the cutoff are Daniel Hemric, Justin Haley, Harrison Burton, and Brandon Jones. The guys on the outside are separated by only fourteen points.

Martinsville is gonna be something special. But before we get there, we gotta ride through the ole Tejas first. I’ll be real here. I hate this track. I’m sure you do too.

They will be using a resin rather than the PJ1 to put on the track to create better racing. It’s worth noting how much trouble the PJ1 has caused here over the years since the repave. Maybe the resin will provide a solution to many of the problems we’ve seen with the other substance.

But you’re not here to give a damn about some racetrack adhesives. You’re here to make money.

Let’s get right into it.

NASCAR Xfinity DFS Texas Picks for DraftKings

Justin Allgaier: #7 JR Motorsports Chevrolet – $10,200

JR Motorsports is bringing excellent racecars to the intermediates this season. A win at Atlanta, a 2nd at Texas and Vegas, and 208 laps led on intermediates throughout 2021 has me very confident in Justin Allgaier on Saturday.

In his last five races at Texas, Allgaier has 156 laps led and three Top 6 finishes. If it weren’t for Kyle Busch, Allgaier would’ve won earlier this year.

Allgaier has  an average finish of 5.2 on intermediates this season, and steadily has been performing well over the playoff run as he is averaging nearly 54 Fantasy Points per race over the last five races.

I think Justin gets to the front from his P6 starting position and is a major threat to win on Saturday. Book Allgaier as atop play this weekend.

Austin Cindric: #22 Penske Racing Ford – $9,800

In his last four races at Texas dating back to 2019, Cindric’s finishes are: 3rd, 1st, 4th and 3rd. 106 laps led and a fairly cheap salary price has me high on Cindric this weekend.

His consistency here over the last two years is remarkable. We know he’s gonna be fast, and he’s riding four consecutive Top 8 finishes and two runner-up finishes in that span as well.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the narrative on Monday remains discussing the back-and-forth dogfight between Cindric and Allmendinger. AJ racking up the wins recently has got to provide some extra motivation for Cindric and the #22 to find their way back to victory lane and clinch their spot in the Championship Four.

Don’t be surprised if Cindric takes the lead early and controls this race from start to finish. Book Cindric as a top play with enhanced value due to his cheaper salary.

Kaz Grala: #31 Jordan Anderson Racing Chevrolet – $11,200

Sigh. I typically don’t write up the “way too obvious” play because it’s tough to win big on a driver that everybody and their grandmother is gonna draft. But this one is simply too difficult to pass up .

There’s no reason why Kaz shouldn’t run in the Top 15 this weekend and even in the Top 10. The price is solely based on the fact he will start from P32 on Saturday and has fantastic place-differential potential.

Jordan Anderson has had a solid program for a startup Xfinity team as they have brought good speed to the series throughout the season. I just won’t go as far as to mark his ceiling as a Top 5 simply because of Kaz’s lack of experience on intermediates over the past couple of seasons.

I expect a solid run from Kaz this weekend.

Bayley Currey: #15 JD Motorsports Chevrolet – $5,200

Punt play of the weekend right here.

Bayley Currey recently has come over from the Mike Harmon Racing Dodge Durango that could explode at any time. Currey has very promising results to look into ahead of this weekend.

In his last four races at Texas, Currey has three Top 20 finishes including a 12th place run in this race one year ago. Currey now drives for a much more reliable team when it comes to lack of random explosions, and in his first race at an intermediate track with JD Motorsports (Las Vegas), he finished 13th after starting 36th.

This #15 team has finished in the Top 20 in 20 of 29 races this season. Currey is priced at $5,200 and starting P39. The ceiling here has the potential to be an optimal play and the floor is as low as you can find. I’m hammering Currey as the top punt play of the weekend.

NASCAR Xfinity Best Bets

To Win:

Justin Allgaier +650

Austin Cindric +300

Daniel Hemric +900

Top 5: 

Justin Allgaier -125


Dale Tanhardt
Dale Tanhardt
Undisputed Greatest NASCAR Bettor in the Universe.

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