While the focus is on the 16 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff contenders, and rightfully so, heading into this weekend’s Playoffs Round of 16-opening race at Atlanta Motor Speedway, the superspeedway/intermediate hybrid track could play host to yet another surprise winner in a season filled with them.
The draft has always been the great equalizer in NASCAR, but in an era where seemingly any driver can win on any given weekend, it could be even more of an equalizer this weekend than even in years past.
Here are five drivers, who missed out on the Playoffs, who very well could surprise by reaching victory lane in Sunday’s Quaker State 400 at Atlanta.
Kyle Busch
Two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Busch has to be at the top of the list, if not for the incredible three-week run Busch is on where he has recorded finishes of fourth at Michigan, second at Daytona, and second at Darlington, for the fact that he finished third in a three-wide photo finish for the race win at Atlanta Motor Speedway in February.
If you extend back to Richmond Raceway, Busch has an average finish of 5.0 in that four-race stretch, and the good performance has come at four totally different racetracks. Richard Childress Racing, which won at Richmond with Austin Dillon but lost the Playoff benefits attached to it after a post-race penalty, has definitely found something in their cars over the last month.
While the RCR cars are starting to surge, they’ve always been top-notch at superspeedways, and Busch’s performance in the season-opening Daytona 500, his third-place finish at Atlanta earlier this year, and runner-up finish at Daytona a couple of weeks ago signals that it could be a prime weekend for Busch to extend his consecutive seasons with a winning streak to 20 this weekend.
Bubba Wallace
When you’re in the thick of the Playoff hunt all season long, and narrowly miss out on it as Bubba Wallace did, that is a pain that you shouldn’t wish on any driver. However, the 23XI Racing driver, who made his first career NASCAR Cup Series Playoff berth a season ago, will look to do what he did in each of the two seasons prior to 2023 — play a Playoff spoiler by winning a race.
In 2021, Wallace took his first career NASCAR Cup Series win in a rain-shortened event at Talladega Superspeedway a few weeks after his Playoff aspirations were dashed. A season later, he took the victory at Kansas Speedway two races after not advancing to the Playoffs. He’ll look to add his third win as a driver outside of the Playoffs this weekend, and Atlanta would be a good place for him to break through.
Wallace is one of the best superspeedway racers in NASCAR today. In addition to his first-career win at Talladega, Wallace has racked up three runner-up finishes at Daytona International Speedway including two second-place runs in the Daytona 500. Wallace also finished fifth at Atlanta earlier this season.
Watch out for Wallace, who will look to avenge being knocked out of the Playoffs this weekend.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
A three-time NASCAR Cup Series superspeedway race winner, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. figures to have a solid chance to play Playoff spoiler this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway. And with persistent rumors that Kroger will be moving on from JTG Daugherty Racing at season’s end to potentially partner with a third RFK Racing entry in 2025, a win couldn’t come at a better time for Stenhouse and the No. 47 team.
While the 2023 Daytona 500 champion hasn’t enjoyed the same success as a season ago, where he made the Playoffs and recorded a 17.8 average finish on the year, his best average finish since his two-win 2017 campaign, he’s had flashes of decency on the track.
With finishes of sixth at Atlanta earlier in the season, and fifth at Talladega Superspeedway, Stenhouse could be heading into the site of his fourth-career NASCAR Cup Series race win this weekend in the Quaker State 400, and who knows, if Kroger does leave, maybe this weekend will provide JTG Daugherty Racing a lead on a new primary sponsorship partner.
Michael McDowell
While it hasn’t been the final season that Michael McDowell and Front Row Motorsports envisioned together, the 2024 campaign hasn’t been all bad. The No. 34 Ford Mustang Dark Horse has had race-winning speed on multiple occasions, and McDowell has also secured his first four pole positions of his career this year.
However, the driver and team would love nothing more than to pick up a third win together before McDowell exits stage left to Spire Motorsports in 2025. There are several tracks in the Playoffs this season, which line up well for McDowell, the first of which is this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
McDowell, the 2021 Daytona 500 champion, is a supremely talented superspeedway racer, and despite finishes of 31st and 30th in his last two superspeedway race starts, the driver was in the front of the pack near the end of those events when he crashed out. With the pressure of a pending Playoff spot off of his back, McDowell can lay it all on the line this weekend, and could very well pick up one last win with the team he helped grow from a pretender to a contender.
Corey LaJoie
With Corey LaJoie’s future uncertain after Spire Motorsports announced they’ll be moving on from him at the end of the year, the 32-year-old racer can’t be content with stacking pennies this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway. LaJoie needs a win, and he needs one badly.
The 1.54-mile track in Hampton, GA is the perfect place for it to happen. The driver of the No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet has 10 career NASCAR Cup Series top-10 finishes, of which nine have come at superspeedway races. And over a two-year stretch from 2022 to 2023, it really looked like the son of two-time NASCAR Xfinity Series champion Randy LaJoie was poised for a breakthrough in Atlanta.
In the spring 2022 event, LaJoie went spinning backward through the grass late in the event. However, that wouldn’t derail his day. He would claw his way back through the minefield of race cars, and he would score his first-career top-five finish.
In the next race at AMS, LaJoie found himself in an unfamiliar position, as he was leading the race in the closing laps. While battling Chase Elliott for the win on a restart with two laps to go, LaJoie spun and crashed from the lead. He would finish 21st in that race, but after leading 19 laps he had a legitimate shot at the race win. LaJoie would follow that run up with a fourth-place finish in his next outing at Atlanta in spring 2023. If LaJoie is going to nab his first career NASCAR Cup Series win before his departure from Spire, this would likely be the weekend for it.
Darkhorse Spoiler: Rick Ware Racing
How about an additional darkhorse spoiler pick for the win this weekend in the Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway? I believe not just one, but BOTH of the Rick Ware Racing Ford Mustang Dark Horses will be potent enough to win the race if in the mix in the closing laps on Sunday.
Justin Haley, who drives the team’s No. 51 entry, is a very talented superspeedway racer, and he saw a potential win slip through his grasp a couple of weeks ago at Daytona International Speedway. Haley led 21 laps and flashed off his extremely fast car with some daring moves at the front of the pack. Ultimately, he would be wiped out of the race in a big crash with under 10 laps remaining in that race.
While Haley crashed out at Daytona, Cody Ware wasn’t and he picked up right where Haley left off as he charged toward the front in the closing laps of the Coke Zero Sugar 400 and collected an impressive fourth-place finish. Ware’s run at Daytona matched the best-ever NASCAR Cup Series finish for RWR. If they can be in contention near the end of the race, you never know, we could see the Rick Ware Racing cars push one another to victory lane.
It’s already been a big week for Rick Ware Racing, who took home the win in the NHRA U.S. Nationals at Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park with top fuel racer Clay Millican. What a story it would be if the team could add its first NASCAR win this weekend.
2 Responses
Busch and Bubba are potential spoilers, Lajoie will wreck out. No there will be very few spoilers, the best cars and drivers made the playoffs. My opinion only.
I agree with most of your picks. Mine is Kyle Busch. He has been on a streak. His head is now in the right place. In interviews, he has been a “new” Kyle. Having two kids now, put him in a new place. RCR, has the parts too win. Just has to get all the ducks in a row. It will happen. Kyle is a hell of a driver.