The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs officially reached its halfway point following last Sunday’s YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. The post-season has brought chaos along with it, as it always has, but this season seems to be different.
Only twice in the opening five post-season events (Joey Logano at Atlanta and Kyle Larson at Bristol) has a playoff-eligible driver been to Victory Lane, in fact, it’s been a sequence of races that has favored non-playoff drivers.
Chris Buescher and Shane Van Gisbergen battled it out for the victory in NASCAR Overtime at Watkins Glen International, Ross Chastain held off William Byron for the win at Kansas Speedway, and most recently, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. edged out Brad Keselowski in a photo finish at Talladega Superspeedway.
I’ll be honest with you, it’s been a tad unexpected. However, looking at the roster for Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway’s ROVAL, there’s no reason to believe that the non-playoff drivers couldn’t snatch a fourth victory.
The entry list is riddled with competent road course racers, from three-time Supercars champion Shane Van Gisbergen, all the way down to Kyle Larson, a series-regular in the NASCAR Cup Series often referred to as one of the best drivers in the world.
If we’re taking bets on which non-playoff driver could spoil the party for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series event, there are a lot of options, but there are five in particular that stand out:
AJ Allmendinger (#16, Kaulig Racing):
Honestly, you probably should have seen this one coming.
It’s hard to bet against the defending NASCAR Cup Series winner at the racetrack, and it’s even harder when said driver has won four NASCAR Xfinity Series events at the racetrack in four starts.
While there’s no proof to support this theory, there’s a non-zero chance that the purpose-built infield road course was reconfigured ahead of this season’s NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series events because of Allmendinger.
If you’re somehow not yet convinced, how about the fact that Allmendinger will be one of two drivers in Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 to have run in-race laps on the newly reconfigured circuit before the green drops?
I’d be surprised if Allmendinger didn’t at least compete for the victory on Sunday.
Shane Van Gisbergen (#13, Kaulig Racing):
If AJ Allmendinger isn’t sitting at the top of your list to spoil the party for the drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, then his Kaulig Racing teammate, Shane Van Gisbergen, probably should be.
The three-time Supercars champion has never visited the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL before, and with the track being configured this season, that might end up being a benefit for the driver piloting the third, part-time entry for Kaulig Racing.
Much like Allmendinger, Van Gisbergen will get those extra in-race laps around the road course in Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series event. Plus, the 35-year-old driver has outrun his Kaulig Racing teammate in several Xfinity Series road course events this season, winning three of them — Portland, Sonoma, and Chicago.
With no points on the line during Sunday’s event, can Van Gisbergen notch his second NASCAR Cup Series victory before heading into the series full-time next season?
Chris Buescher (#17, RFK Racing):
With so many viable options among non-playoff drivers to win Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 at the Charlotte ROVAL, there’s no need for any kind of reaching… yet.
Chris Buescher is the most recent road course winner in the NASCAR Cup Series, and to do so, he had to outduel Shane Van Gisbergen in NASCAR Overtime. That victory at Watkins Glen was the continuation of stellar road course results for the No. 17 Ford Mustang Dark Horse team, who often finds themselves among the top-10 when having to make some right turns.
So, why not back-to-back road course wins for Buescher and RFK?
Michael McDowell (#34, Front Row Motorsports):
Michael McDowell has spent the last several years building the NASCAR Cup Series program at Front Row Motorsports, and along the way, has competed for several wins on the road courses.
Last season, the driver of the No. 34 Ford Mustang won his second NASCAR Cup Series event at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course, and in just about every road course event since has been contending for the victory.
It hasn’t quite come together for McDowell just yet, but maybe in his final road course event with Front Row Motorsports, the Phoenix, Arizona native can bring Bob Jenkins back to Victory Lane — and in such a turbulent time for the organization, as well.
Zane Smith (#71, Spire Motorsports):
After four pretty straightforward picks, here’s a much more radical one: Zane Smith.
Yes, he’s a rookie, yes, he’s driving for a team that hasn’t won a full-distance race, and yes, he’s only competed at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL once before, but the Huntington Beach, California native I feel can overcome all of that.
At Watkins Glen, Spire Motorsports brought three fast cars for Zane Smith, and his teammates Carson Hocevar and Corey LaJoie. That afternoon resulted in both the first double top-five result for the organization, and the first triple top-10.
When competing in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series, Smith made a habit of competing for victories at Circuit of The Americas, one of the only road courses that the series would visit every year.
In addition to all of that, there’s some more motivation for the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series champion, who hasn’t yet confirmed his plans for the 2025 season, after being bounced from Trackhouse Racing.
There’s no doubt that a victory in the NASCAR Cup Series would look pretty good on Zane Smith’s resume.
