The Round of 8 of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs begins on Sunday with the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. And while Kyle Larson, who won last weekend’s race at the ROVAL will be the overwhelming favorite as he comes into this weekend with a two-race winning streak at LVMS, and he’s won three races at the 1.5-mile oval since 2021, there are some interesting non-Playoff drivers who could challenge the Hendrick Motorsports driver and other Playoff contenders for the win.
There are four former Las Vegas Motor Speedway race winners, who are not currently inside of the Playoff field, and at least one of them has plenty of reason to try to get the job done again this weekend.
So, who are the non-Playoff drivers that I feel can most likely contend for a win this weekend at Las Vegas?
Alex Bowman
Without a doubt, Bowman is at the top of my list as he suffered a heartbreaking exit from the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs after he was disqualified from an 18th-place finish at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL due to his car being too light in post-race inspection.
Bowman, 31, won the Spring race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in 2022 and followed that up with a third-place effort the following Spring at the track.
While his overall track record at the facility isn’t spotless, Bowman and crew chief Blake Harris will be very motivated to end the season on a high note after Hendrick Motorsports flat-out miscalculated how heavy Bowman’s car needed to be in post-race at the ROVAL. Prior to the disqualification, Harris told TobyChristie.com that Las Vegas was the race that he and Bowman had been looking forward to the most during their inspired Playoff run.
“We’ve had Vegas circled,” Harris said. “Really excited about getting to Vegas. [That track was] Our first race together, we finished third. Alex won there in ’22. So, yeah, high hopes for Vegas.”
Brad Keselowski
Brad Keselowski is one of the most established drivers in NASCAR Cup Series history at Las Vegas Motor Speedway as the driver of the No. 6 RFK Racing Ford Mustang has three career wins at the 1.5-mile speedway in Sin City.
With his Playoff hopes dashed at the conclusion of the Round of 16, Keselowski and his RFK Racing team are attempting to build momentum for a stronger 2025 season, and they could very well pull off a win in Vegas and serve as a Playoff spoiler.
Keselowski finished fourth in this race a season ago, and he has nine top-five finishes, and 13 top-10s overall in his 22 career starts at Las Vegas.
Kyle Busch
Four opportunities, that’s all that is left for Kyle Busch to score a win in 2024, and continue his consecutive seasons with a win in the NASCAR Cup Series streak to 20 seasons. What poetic justice it would be for the 39-year-old to pull it off at his home track?
Busch pulled off his lone NASCAR Cup Series win at Las Vegas in 2009, but aside from that win, Busch had experienced a lot of frustration at his home track over his first few years in the NASCAR Cup Series. However, in recent years, Busch has become quite consistent at the 1.5-mile track.
The driver of the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet has six top-10 finishes over his last eight starts at Las Vegas, including five top-fives. Busch finished third in last year’s Playoff race at Las Vegas, now, he’ll look to do a couple of spots better than that this time around.
Busch has come on strong lately as he scored three top-fives in a row, and four top-10s consecutively, a streak that ended five races ago. A few weeks ago, Busch also looked to be heading to his first win of the season at Kansas Speedway, another 1.5-mile speedway, until he spun from the lead in the closing laps, resulting in a 19th-place result.
Martin Truex Jr.
While his past performances at Las Vegas Motor Speedway would indicate Truex should be one of the favorites to win Sunday at Las Vegas, his 2024 record would signal the opposite.
That being said, it feels wrong that Truex’s final full-time season in the NASCAR Cup Series can end without a win. Like Busch, Truex showed signs of life a few weeks ago at Kansas Speedway, a similar 1.5-mile track to Las Vegas, as he finished third. That finish was Truex’s first top-five since Kansas Speedway in May, and it was his first top-10 since Pocono in July.
If Truex’s two finishes at Kansas Speedway and his seventh-place run at Las Vegas earlier in the year are any indication, the driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota could emerge with a shot to win this weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
In 25 career starts at Las Vegas, Truex has two wins, seven top-fives, and 16 top-10s.
Noah Gragson
It didn’t feel like three former NASCAR Cup Series champions and a driver who had initially locked into the Round of 8 at the ROVAL before post-race inspection were going out enough on a limb to me. So, I dug deep and found Noah Gragson, who like Busch, is a Las Vegas native.
With Gragson’s Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Chase Briscoe being eliminated from the Playoffs this past week, it will allow the entire SHR team to now go into business for themselves, instead of attempting to boost Briscoe’s Playoff chances. I think that bodes well for the 26-year-old Gragson this weekend.
Gragson surprised with a solid sixth-place finish at Las Vegas earlier this year, and driving in relief for an injured Alex Bowman in the Fall of 2022, Gragson finished 11th at LVMS in the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet.
While he’s possibly the longest of shots of the drivers listed here, don’t sleep on Gragson and his desire to finally score a win at his home track. Gragson came bitterly close to pulling it off in the NASCAR Xfinity Series as he never finished outside of the top-10 in eight NXS starts at the track, and he had three runner-up finishes as well as two third-place runs. With a move to Front Row Motorsports coming next year, Gragson will look to pump up his confidence even more than he has already this year before the move.
