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5 Drivers Capable of Locking into Playoffs with Sonoma Win

Photo Credit: Aaron Giffin, TobyChristie.com

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As the NASCAR Cup Series makes its annual trip to the West Coast to Sonoma Raceway, the entire field is looking to beat Shane van Gisbergen — the winner of the last two road course events — at his own game.

It’s not going to be an easy task, though, as the Trackhouse Racing driver beat Chase Briscoe for the pole position by a quarter-second, and finished runner-up in Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series event to Connor Zilisch.

Sunday’s 110-lap contest will mark the first NASCAR Cup Series start at Sonoma Raceway for the three-time Supercars champion, potentially leaving the door open for another driver (one without a victory this season) to pounce and lock themselves into the postseason.


A.J. Allmendinger

It has been a solid season for AJ Allmendinger in his return to full-time competition in the NASCAR Cup Series, sitting 15th-place in series point standings with Kaulig Racing on the strength of one top-five and five top-10s.

Allmendinger, a native of Los Gatos, California, is no doubt a specialist when it comes to the road courses, collecting all three of his victories in the NASCAR Cup Series on non-oval racetracks (two at Charlotte’s ROVAL and one at Watkins Glen).

It’s a big weekend for a 43-year-old driver, as this weekend at Sonoma marks the second-to-last road course event before the start of the post-season, marking one of the last major opportunities for the No. 16 to find Victory Lane.

Allmendinger will roll from the fifth position in Sunday’s Toyota / Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway, and looks to have a quick racecar after his No. 16 Big Sipz Chevrolet was fastest in practice on Saturday.

Ty Gibbs

Will the 107th NASCAR Cup Series start for Ty Gibbs be the lucky one?

The grandson of championship-winning NASCAR Cup Series team owner Joe Gibbs is still searching for his first career victory at NASCAR’s top level and has had momentum on his side in recent weeks, including a runner-up finish at the Chicago Street Course.

Gibbs was also the closest adversary to Shane van Gisbergen at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in June but saw his No. 54 Toyota Camry XSE fade prior to the finish, costing him a shot at the victory or even a top-five result.

The Charlotte, North Carolina-native has a best finish of 18th at the Sonoma, California road course, but Gibbs is looking to break into the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs with a victory on Sunday. Can Gibbs defeat Shane van Gisbergen and AJ Allmendinger, amongst others?

We’ll have to wait and see. The No. 54 was fast in practice and will start sixth.

Michael McDowell

At Chicago last weekend, Michael McDowell looked to have the pace to hang with Shane van Gisbergen, but a mechanical issue knocked him out of contention to win the Grant Park 165.

McDowell will roll from 15th on Sunday at Sonoma Raceway, which isn’t optimal for capturing a victory, but with some strong pace and great strategy by crew chief Travis Peterson, it could happen — but he’ll have to fight against Shane van Gisbergen once again.

The Avondale, Arizona-native finished runner-up at the 1.99-mile road course last season with Front Row Motorsports, so there has been some past success to help boost the driver’s confidence heading into the penultimate road course of the regular season.

It’s been a solid and consistent season for McDowell, but a win would put Spire Motorsports in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs for the first time ever.

Kyle Busch

It’s been more than two years since Kyle Busch has been to Victory Lane in the NASCAR Cup Series.

In his third year driving for Richard Childress Racing, the two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion has struggled to find traction to earn solid finishes, only having a pair of top-five results this season, both of which have come on the road courses.

The last time Busch finished in the top five on an oval? The 2024 Southern 500, the final race of the regular season last season. This is possibly one of the best opportunities for Busch to collect a victory and get himself in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, and potentially stop the suffering.

Busch, a native of Las Vegas, Nevada, will be starting mid-pack, rolling from 17th in the No. 8 Zone Nicotine Pouches Chevrolet.

Carson Hocevar

It’s a bit of a long shot, but Carson Hocevar could find himself as a contender in Sunday’s Toyota / Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. The Spire Motorsports driver definitely has the pace on road courses; he’s shown that during his career, but execution will be critical.

Last weekend in Chicago, Hocevar qualified inside the top-10 and looked to have some decent pace, but a crash on the fourth lap of the race (derived from a simple mistake of pushing too hard) ended his afternoon, and the afternoon of several others.

At Watkins Glen last September, Hocevar got lost during qualifying (literally), but somehow, someway, drove through the pack to finish in third place.

It’ll have to be a mistake-free afternoon, but should things go exactly right and the cards fall in the proper manner, maybe Hocevar could put Spire Motorsports in the NASCAR Playoffs for the first time.

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