Well, that qualifying session seemed a little sketchy. It sure looked bumpy during qualifying at Atlanta this weekend. We saw Ty Gibbs in the wall, and Christopher Bell damn near wreck in the few laps teams got on track. I’m sure that being the only on-track session before the green flag won’t be problematic AT ALL.
That uncertainty, combined with terrible odds from most Sportsbooks, is exactly why there was no pre-qualification bets article this week. Now that qualifying is over, though, I’m here to give you three more DFS plays and one fade for this weekend’s Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
* —All prices are DraftKings
ROSS CHASTAIN – $10,000
Ross Chastain is a great play this week after qualifying in 18th. With Atlanta now being a speedway-style race, place differential upside is going to be huge. Finding a driver of Chastain’s caliber in terms of driver and equipment that far back is going to be difficult.
But it’s more than that. Chastain was a stud at Atlanta last season, finishing second place in both events, and leading 74 laps between the track’s two race dates. Now, there is a chance Chastain is one of the highest-owned drivers on the slate, but I’m hoping that a lot of players will see how dominant Ford was in qualifying and go heavy on them.
If that’s indeed the case, Ross is going to be one of, if not the best, play on the slate.
ERIK JONES – $7,500
Honestly, I was surprised to see Erik Jones this low-priced. After qualifying, it looks like a complete steal. For starters, Jones was really solid here last year, finishing fourth in the Fall race and 14th in the Spring race.
Also, LEGACY MOTOR CLUB has a good history of building quick superspeedway cars. I love Jones this week. Erik Jones actually has one of the highest finish rates of any driver in the NASCAR Cup Series over the span of his career, a stat that really comes into play this weekend.
I’ll be heavy on Erik Jones, for sure.
AJ ALLMENDINGER – $6,300
AJ Allmendinger is another driver that really excites me this weekend in Atlanta. There are two guys below him in price – and starting position – in Ty Gibbs and Corey LaJoie that I think will get all of the attention, leaving Allmendinger severely under-owned.
However, AJ is a master at finishing these races, he is always able to find a way to survive. Not to mention, Kaulig Racing actually builds solid rides for plate races, as evident by Allmendinger’s sixth-place run in the Daytona 500.
You might be tempted to play one or both of the guys listed above instead, but you don’t win at DFS by playing the same people as everyone else. I think people pass over Allmendinger this weekend, and it will bite them big time.
DO NOT TOUCH
Kyle Larson – $11,200
There is absolutely no reason to ever play Kyle Larson at any sort of track resembling a superspeedway. There is even less reason to play him starting inside the top-10 at a superspeedway. Now add the fact that he’s the most expensive driver on the slate and the only one in the $11k range, and you’ve got an almost complete fade for me.
Larson isn’t just bad at drafting tracks; he’s awful. Most of that is luck based, but after a certain point, you simply cannot deny the trends. Last year at Atlanta specifically, he was 30th and 13th, and that just isn’t good enough for me to play.