Heading into Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway, the final race of the regular season, there are 13 drivers, who have currently clinched a Playoff berth.
Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric, and Harrison Burton, no matter what happens on Sunday night, will not be on the outside looking in when the Playoffs kick off next week.
However, there are three Playoff spots still up for grabs. Currently, there are five drivers mathematically within striking distance to point their way into the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs provided there isn’t a new winner from outside the Playoff cutline this weekend.
Playoff Clinch Scenarios
- Martin Truex Jr. (+58 points to cutline)
No Playoff-Eligible Winner Outside cutline: Martin Truex Jr. would clinch a spot in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Field simply by starting the race.
New Playoff-Eligible Winner Outside Cutline: If any playoff-eligible driver currently outside of the Playoff cutline wins at Darlington, Truex can still clinch his place in the Playoffs, regardless of what his competition does by scoring 19 points. 19 points can be achieved with an 18th-place finish without Stage Points. Accumulating Stage Points would make the path even easier for Truex.
- Ty Gibbs (+39 points to cutline)
No Playoff-Eligible Winner Outside cutline: Ty Gibbs could secure his first career NASCAR Cup Series Playoff berth by securing 16 points at Darlington Raceway. If Gibbs doesn’t collect any Stage Points throughout the race, he can secure 16 points with a 21st-place finish. By adding Stage Points, Gibbs can make his path to a Playoff berth even easier.
New Playoff-Eligible Winner Outside Cutline: If a driver from outside the cutline locks their place into the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs with a win at Darlington, Gibbs can secure his place in the Playoffs, regardless of what anyone below him in points does, by scoring 38 points. Obviously, it would take a win for Gibbs to pull that off without Stage Points, but with up to 20 points available for Gibbs to accrue between Stages 1 and 2, there is most definitely a path to amass 38 points without winning the race.
- Chris Buescher (+21 points to cutline)
No Playoff-Eligible Winner Outside cutline: While 21 points seem like a decent buffer for Chris Buescher, that advantage can evaporate in a hurry at a rough-and-tumble racetrack such as Darlington Raceway. A prime example was Buescher’s run at Darlington in the spring, where he lost 29 points over the final nine laps of that event.
In order to secure his Playoff berth, regardless of what his competition does, provided a Playoff eligible driver below him in points doesn’t win, Buescher would need to score at least 34 points in Sunday’s race. That can be achieved with a third-place finish without Stage Points.
New Playoff-Eligible Winner Outside Cutline: If a driver from outside the cutline locks their place into the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs with a win at Darlington, that would effectively put Buescher in a position where he would need to benefit from somebody else’s misfortune. It’s not impossible, but he would have to gain enough points to surpass Gibbs, or, even unlikelier, Truex when the checkered flag flies.
- Bubba Wallace (-21 points to cutline)
No Playoff-Eligible Winner Outside cutline: At 21 points behind Buescher, and 39 points behind Gibbs, Wallace is going to have to have some things fall his way, but there are plenty of paths that could lead him there over the course of a 500-mile event at Darlington Raceway.
New Playoff-Eligible Winner Outside Cutline: This would essentially move the cutline, where Wallace would have to overcome a 39-point disadvantage to Ty Gibbs going into the race and leapfrog Buescher on his path to passing Gibbs in the standings to secure a berth. It can happen, but there will not be much margin for error.
- Ross Chastain (-27 points to cutline)
No Playoff-Eligible Winner Outside cutline: Like Wallace, the path to a Playoff berth for Chastain without winning is less than ideal as he sits 29 points behind Buescher and 45 points behind Gibbs, Chastain will need to end the day ahead of two drivers that he is currently behind in order to advance to the Playoffs if there is no new winner on Sunday.
New Playoff-Eligible Winner Outside Cutline: This makes an already difficult task, even more difficult. Chastain would have to overcome the 45-point deficit to Gibbs and leapfrog Buescher and Wallace in the standings to secure his spot in the Playoffs. Not impossible, but the most likely path for Chastain would be to outright win the race.
Playoff Eligible Drivers, Who Could Surprise Win Their Way Into Playoffs
While we are pouring over the numbers, and scenarios with those mathematically alive to point their way into the Playoffs, there are still a number of Playoff-eligible drivers, who could turn the Playoff Grid on its head with a surprise win at Darlington Raceway. Obviously, Truex, Gibbs, Buescher, Wallace, and Chastain can win their way in, but there are 15 other drivers who can take their subpar seasons and turn it into a year where they battle for a championship.
The other drivers eligible to lock into the Playoffs with a win at Darlington are Kyle Busch, Chase Briscoe, Todd Gilliland, Carson Hocevar, Michael McDowell, Josh Berry, Noah Gragson, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ryan Preece, Daniel Hemric, Austin Dillon, Justin Haley, John Hunter Nemechek, Corey LaJoie, and Zane Smith.
Regular Season Championship Clinch Scenarios
There are still three drivers with a mathematical shot at taking home the NASCAR Cup Series regular season championship, and the 15 Playoff Points that go along with it. Tyler Reddick is the driver who controls his own destiny coming into the Cook Out Southern 500.
Reddick, who holds a 17-point lead over Kyle Larson, and an 18-point lead over Chase Elliott coming into the weekend, could lock up the regular season championship regardless of where his competitors finish by racking up 44 points. A win is worth 40 points without Stage Points, but with 20 points available by winning Stages 1 and 2, there are plenty of paths for Reddick to secure enough points to clinch the regular season title without having to sweat it out in the closing laps.
That being said, all three drivers eligible for the regular season title are really good at Darlington, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them mixing it up all race long amongst themselves.
