Heading into the Round of 16 of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, Kyle Larson holds the distinct advantage of being slotted as the No. 1 seed in the championship standings. Following a regular season, where Larson piled on four race wins, 10 Stage Wins, and ranked second overall in the regular season championship standings, the driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 has 40 Playoff Points in his back pocket.
As a result, the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion holds a 35-point advantage over the cutline, and with that, he carries the best odds of anyone in the 16-driver field to win the championship. Currently, Larson is listed at +380 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to take home the title.
However, not one to count his chickens before they hatch, Larson isn’t getting carried away with his points ranking. The 32-year-old regarded by many as the most versatile, and potentially most talented racer in the world, knows in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs format what you’ve already done isn’t nearly as important as what you’re going to do.
“No, I don’t care about odds, really,” Larson explained. “Yeah, I don’t. I think like I said – NASCAR, especially in the Next Gen era, is just crazy. There’s so much inconsistency these days that you can easily find yourself in trouble. It doesn’t matter if you have a 35 or 40-point buffer to the cutline currently.”
A prime example of why no points buffer is safe in the Playoffs unless it’s a big enough buffer to mathematically clinch your advancement is the wild Round of 16 three-race schedule. Beginning with this weekend’s Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway which has featured pack-style draft racing since 2022, followed by Watkins Glen an ultra-fast road course, and then rounded out with the night race at Bristol a track that ate up tires like crazy in the spring, the round is filled with opportunities to make mistakes.
“Yeah, I don’t love seeing Atlanta (Motor Speedway) in the playoffs at all. And even Watkins Glen (International) for that matter, just because – yes, I like those tracks, but they’re just sketchy places,” Larson admitted. “But if they’re going to be in the playoffs, I would rather them be in the first round than the second or third round. So yeah, I mean I think having the bonus points and playoff points that we’ve earned throughout the regular season is nice. But it still doesn’t guarantee anything. You still have to not run into any trouble, especially in back-to-back weeks, and hopefully, you can just make it through.”
If Larson doesn’t make it through the Round of 16, it would be possibly the biggest upset in the history of the opening round of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Format since the installation of the format in 2014.
But if there were a year where something nutty was bound to happen in the Playoffs, it would seemingly be the 2024 season. 15 total drivers have visited victory lane through the opening 26 races of the year, 14 of them secured Playoff berths by way of their wins. Over the last four races, three races have been won by drivers ranking 31st, 34th, and 18th in the championship standings.
After the opening 12 races of the season, where it seemed like the intense parity brought on by the Next Gen car was starting to dwindle, we’ve reached the peak of the ‘Any Given Sunday’ era in NASCAR. It’s exciting, but for the top dogs, like Larson, chasing a championship, it can be nerve-racking.
Another nerve-racking thing for Larson and his three Hendrick Motorsports teammates in the Playoffs field is trying to be the driver, who can bring home the Bill France Cup to the HMS shop in Concord, NC in the organization’s 40th anniversary season.
At NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Media Day in Charlotte on Wednesday, Larson downplayed the pressure of the team trying to capture NASCAR’s biggest prize on the milestone ruby anniversary of Hendrick Motorsports.
“I don’t view it as pressure. I just view it as opportunity,” Larson stated. “Right now, we have 10 more opportunities to win a race, and then also a championship, which would be great in Rick’s (Hendrick) 40th season. Yeah, just have to try and execute, and hopefully, we’ll give ourselves an opportunity to do that.”
If Larson does find trouble over the final 10 races and misses the Championship 4, he doesn’t feel like he will label his season a bad one.
“I don’t know. I try not to think about missing the Championship Four,” Larson explained. “Right now, our plan is to do a good job, and then give ourselves an opportunity at Phoenix. If we happen to miss the Championship Four, then I can try and judge if it’s a bad season or not. But we’ve already got four wins at this point, so I wouldn’t call that a bad season.”
